花嫁

黄金、比特币起飞！美债危机正重燃“货币贬值交易”？_我的网站

A |     　　美国财长贝森特旨在压低美国融资成本的干预，仅让长期美债收益率走低了不到一天。    

Wu Hui, a research fellow at the School of Earth and Space Sciences of Peking University
Editor's Note: 
Ahead of the opening of the 2026 World AI Conference and High-Level Meeting on Global AI Governance, Chinese AI start-up Moonshot AI released its Kimi K3 large language model. As the world's largest open-source model by parameter count to date, this launch marks a significant step forward in the development of China's artificial intelligence models.
From the C919 airliner soaring into the skies to Unitree's humanoid robots stealing the show; from DeepSeek pushing the AI frontier to Moonshot AI's landmark unveiling of Kimi K3 - China's wave of homegrown innovations has dominated global headlines in recent years, delivering a steady stream of breakthroughs.
At a meeting in Beijing that brought together the national science and technology award conference, the general assemblies of the members of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE), and the 11th national congress of the China Association for Science and Technology in July, Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, stressed that the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030) is a critical phase for tackling tough challenges in building up the country's strength in science and technology.
"We must seize the historic opportunity, rise to the challenges of the times, accelerate efforts to achieve high-level self-reliance and strength in science and technology, and make steady progress toward the 2035 goal of becoming a leading country in science and technology," he said.
In the article "Strive for Greater Strength and Self-Reliance in Science and Technology" included in the fourth volume of Xi Jinping: The Governance of China, Xi pointed out, "Through years of endeavor, our country's overall strength in science and technology has improved substantially. We therefore have a solid foundation, and are fully confident in our ability to seize the opportunities offered by the new revolution in science, technology and industry to achieve greater results." The article also mentioned that "We should participate to the full in global science and technology governance, contribute Chinese wisdom, and shape a philosophy of technology for good purposes, so that science and technology better serve human wellbeing, and enable China's science and technology industry to contribute more to building a global community of shared future." 
In the 27th installment of the special series "Decoding the Book Xi Jinping: The Governance of China," the Global Times, along with the People's Daily Overseas Edition, continues to invite Chinese and foreign scholars, translators of Xi's works, practitioners with firsthand experience, and international readers to focus on the theme of striving for greater strength and self-reliance in science and technology. Together, they share views on China's tech growth, governance principles, and global cooperation in science and technology.
In the 25th article of the "Scholars' Perspectives" column, Wu Hui, a research fellow at the School of Earth and Space Sciences of Peking University, shared his understanding of sci-tech strength and self-reliance through the perspective of a young scholar. 
Global Times: Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered an important speech on July 8, emphasizing that the future of science lies in the youth, calling for improved mechanisms to integrate science and education in talent cultivation and for greater efforts to foster outstanding young sci-tech talent. He also urged greater support to be provided to researchers to help them overcome practical challenges.
As a young scholar, how do you view the encouragement from the Chinese leader? In recent years, what concrete measures have been taken to help young talents focus on research and develop their careers?
Wu: As a young scientific and technological worker who returned to China not long ago, I was greatly encouraged after listening to President Xi's important speech on site. The Chinese president's emphasis on greater efforts to foster outstanding young sci-tech talent and his call to avoid blindly following trends and curb involution-style competition allow us to devote ourselves to fundamental research with greater confidence and focus.
In my view, these remarks represent both encouragement and expectations. Every young scientific and technological worker should clearly understand the country's high expectations for young talent, closely align personal research directions with national needs, engage in solid fundamental research, and contribute to the country's scientific and technological development.
Some young researchers are working in an increasingly "overheated" research environment, where competing for projects, counting papers, applying for awards, and seeking prestigious titles have gradually taken priority over actual scientific inquiry. Many fear falling behind, creating a situation where scientific research has gradually deviated from its original purpose. It is necessary to reverse this "overheated" atmosphere, allowing young researchers to fully utilize their strengths, be willing to devote themselves to long-term and challenging work, and have the courage to pursue breakthroughs at the frontiers of science.
In recent years, the country has taken a series of comprehensive measures to remove concerns that hinder young scientific and technological workers and create a supportive environment for research. Various special programs and funding mechanisms for young talent have helped researchers launch their projects smoothly. Programs such as key national research and development projects for young scientists, including those focusing on less mainstream but strategically important fields, have enabled young researchers to pursue long-term breakthroughs in specific areas. Meanwhile, continuously improving scientific evaluation standards have helped young talents avoid blindly chasing publication numbers. These practical measures are gradually guiding young researchers to focus on conducting the scientific research that the country truly needs with greater dedication and confidence.
GT: President Xi also pointed out in the speech that efforts should be made to identify and nurture the teenagers' interests, specialties, scientific literacy and experimental skills, inspiring more promising youth to pursue careers in science and technology. Based on your personal experience and observations, could you elaborate on the importance of cultivating interests, talents, and scientific literacy in expanding the pool of scientific talent and enhancing the country's overall scientific and technological capabilities?
Wu: Every young person has their own interests and strengths. Many scientists who have made outstanding contributions in basic science often demonstrated unique talents and strong interests from an early age. Identifying and nurturing young people's interests and strengths is therefore crucial for cultivating future outstanding scientists and engineers.
Of course, not every young person's interests and strengths lie in scientific research, nor does every young person need to pursue a career in science and technology. Therefore, it is particularly important to identify and support young people who have an interest in basic sciences and applied disciplines, as well as those with related talents and potential. This serves as a foundation for cultivating future world-class scientists.
I have always believed that interests and hobbies can be cultivated. Many young people may not show remarkable talents or outstanding abilities at an early age, but with proper guidance and cultivation, they can also grow into experts in a particular field. This is crucial to expanding the country's pool of scientific and technological talent.
Taking myself as an example, when I was in junior and senior high school, I did not have a particularly strong interest in any specific subject, nor did I possess any special talents. I simply enjoyed solving mathematics problems. During my undergraduate and doctoral studies at Tsinghua University, through a series of opportunities and choices, I eventually chose geotechnical engineering and rock mechanics as my research field, and became a scientific and technological worker in this area, joining China's scientific research community.
If I had chosen civil engineering or environmental studies at that time, I might have become a researcher specializing in structural engineering or environmental remediation instead. Therefore, cultivating an interest, allowing it to develop into a strength, and eventually turning it into a career may be a pathway for many young people to pursue careers in science and technology.
President Xi's remarks on identifying and nurturing young people's interests and strengths deeply resonated with me.
For most applied fundamental disciplines, scientific researchers are required to possess strong overall capabilities and a broad vision. Looking back at the history of great scientists, we can see that they were often not merely experts in a single field. Leonardo da Vinci, for example, was not only a painter but also a civil engineer; Albert Einstein was an accomplished violinist; Richard Feynman conducted research across disciplines, including biology; and Qian Weichang had extensive knowledge of ancient Chinese literature.
Cultivating the comprehensive qualities of scientific talent is therefore essential. Insights from other fields can often provide inspiration and breakthroughs, and interdisciplinary integration frequently leads to unexpected discoveries.
During my time in the US, I encountered several scientists regarded as "geniuses." The reason they were able to achieve breakthroughs beyond what ordinary researchers could accomplish was closely related to their diverse backgrounds and learning experiences.
One of my colleagues, for example, led a team in developing a numerical simulation platform that was ahead of its time. At first, I thought such an achievement was something only a genius could accomplish. But after learning more about his background, I found that he had been an excellent programmer during his university years, while his academic specialty was rock mechanics. He was also a triathlon athlete. These seemingly unrelated experiences and knowledge accumulated over time helped him build the foundation necessary to develop advanced numerical programs. Of course, his strong physical fitness was also an important foundation for this process.
Therefore, it is essential to cultivate the all-round scientific literacy of researchers. Only by developing scientific talent with comprehensive abilities can we truly enhance the country's overall scientific and technological strength.
GT: In the article "Building China into a Sci-Tech Powerhouse" in Volume V of Xi Jinping: The Governance of China, Xi emphasized that "we should fully leverage the strengths of the new system for mobilizing resources nationwide and step up efforts to increase our country's strength and self -reliance in science and technology." He also pointed out that "the more complex the international environment, the more we should be open-minded and engage with the world. We should determine the right balance between opening up and security, and achieve greater strength and self-reliance in science and technology through international cooperation." 
Can you talk, based on your work, about how you understand the dialectical relationship between "strength and self -reliance in science and technology" and "international cooperation"? 
Wu: The "strength and self-reliance in science and technology" and "international cooperation" are not an either-or proposition. Instead, they form a dialectical unity: two sides of the same coin that empower each other. Open-door cooperation enables our sci-tech self-reliance and strength to build on a higher starting point, while sci-tech self-reliance and strength gives us greater confidence in engaging with the world.
As a researcher in deep‑earth energy development, the most frequently used research tools in everyday work are high‑temperature and high‑pressure experiments and high‑performance numerical simulation platforms. For high‑temperature and high‑pressure experiments, certain precision measuring sensors still rely on imported equipment. Some hydrochemistry and isotope tests also depend on facilities provided by foreign manufacturers. Open cooperation on such infrastructure has, to a certain extent, underpinned the progress of our scientific research.
Meanwhile, thanks to growing national investment in basic research and R&D of key equipment in recent years, we have gradually achieved "domestic substitution" for many measuring devices and experimental instruments. Cooperation with foreign manufacturers has also, to some extent, boosted the R&D of home‑grown instruments and equipment. 
I once participated in the development of a large‑scale numerical‑computation program overseas designed for subsurface multi‑field coupling simulation. Since this program is open‑source, I continued to build upon it after returning to China and carried out relevant scientific research using this tool. Although China has home‑grown programs with similar functions and independent intellectual property rights, gaps remain in computing power and efficiency. While developing our new‑generation computation programs with  intellectual property rights, we draw on certain general algorithms and techniques from foreign programs to enhance our computing capacity. This kind of open collaboration likewise contributes to China's sci‑tech self‑reliance and strength.
In my discipline, many scientific and technological challenges are not exclusive to Chinese scientists; they are shared by researchers across the globe. Isolated efforts will hardly deliver genuine high‑level achievements. "Strength and self-reliance in science and technology" means not only that we achieve sci‑tech leadership, but also that we can contribute Chinese wisdom to global sci‑tech progress and offer Chinese solutions to the world's challenges. That makes full‑fledged openness and cooperation in science and technology all the more necessary as we pursue self‑reliance and strength.
I am a member of the Chinese Society for Rock Mechanics & Engineering. Academician He Manchao, the society's president, often emphasizes to us the importance of open science. Citing dam construction and maintenance as an example, he has illustrated how Chinese solutions are making their way to the world. In the past, we learned theories and technologies from Western countries. Today, we have taken the lead in certain applied sectors of rock mechanics. As a major country, we should act with a sense of global responsibility and give back to the international community.
GT: At the opening ceremony of the 2026 World AI Conference, President Xi proposed to join hands to build a just and equitable system for global AI governance. How do you apply AI in your work? Drawing on your exchanges with international peers, could you elaborate, from the perspective of a young scholar, on the necessity and importance of strengthening global AI governance for this "future-oriented" field?
Wu: AI is frequently used in my daily scientific research, and its applications mainly fall into three categories. First, for my research project on the inversion of underground fracture networks, we adopt generative AI to realize low-dimensional parameterization of complex fracture networks, which greatly improves the accuracy and efficiency of fracture-network inversion. Second, we employ methods such as residual neural networks to build high-efficiency surrogate models for fracture seepage and heat transfer processes, enabling rapid reconstruction of fracture flow-field and temperature-field distributions. Lastly, we also leverage AI tools such as DeepSeek for knowledge retrieval and information lookup in routine research - tools that most scientific and technological workers use.
From my own experience of using AI, it is highly necessary and urgent to strengthen global AI governance. With the rapid advancement of AI tools today, they are exerting all‑round impacts on our work and daily lives across teaching, scientific research, knowledge acquisition and other spheres. 
In teaching, students turn to AI for information, which reduces their in‑class focus and engagement and weakens their systematic absorption and understanding of knowledge. In scientific research, students also rely on AI to look up theories, formulas and methodologies. Yet they cannot guarantee the reliability of outputs. AI‑compiled theories and formulas frequently emerge, steering research onto wrong paths. In terms of knowledge access, AI model hallucinations are widely known. Some AI‑generated videos, images and stories online are so realistic that they can easily mislead the public and distort their understanding of policies and facts.
As AI undergoes rapid iteration and becomes ever‑more prevalent, stricter rules are required to govern its use. That is why we must boost global AI governance, draw up relevant development and usage standards, and keep AI‑related risks and harms to a minimum. As a major frontrunner in AI development and deployment, China ought to spearhead the creation and roll‑out of AI governance frameworks. Such efforts will protect national security and social stability, while delivering new paradigms for sci‑tech R&D in the AI age.
。

B | 相比之下，更为持久的市场信号却在于——美元走弱，而黄金与比特币同步走高，进一步强化了年初由不断膨胀的美国财政赤字及政策走向隐忧所驱动的“货币贬值交易”叙事。　　这种走势的分化，暴露出了一个更深层次的困境：　　华盛顿方面急切希望降低资金成本，但居高不下的通胀却持续对美联储构成硬性约束。与此同时，无论是在大规模公共借贷领域，还是在源源不断涌入人工智能的巨额资金池中，政府与企业对全球资本的争夺都已步入白热化阶段。　　AI浪潮恰好处于这场资本争夺战的十字路口。一方面，为AI建设的融资对国债市场构成了极其庞大的资金争夺；另一方面，投资者对其未来盈利的强劲预期，正支撑着股市抵御利率上升的冲击。在美股展现出惊人韧性而美债持续重挫的同时，市场的焦虑情绪也转而在其他资产类别中显现出来。　　所谓“货币贬值交易”，是指投资者因预期持续的财政赤字和通胀将不断蚕食美元购买力，转而涌入黄金、白银等贵金属以及比特币等加密货币寻求避险。　　对于野村证券跨资产策略师Charlie McElligott而言，市场反应显示出部分压力正在去向何方：他将黄金上涨、美元下跌以及比特币同步走高的行情，描述为在美国当局寻求稳定长期利率时的“压力释放阀”。　　桥水创始人达利欧上周五则对这一行情给出了更为具有警示性的解读，他敦促投资者应当低配债券等债务类资产，超配黄金，并配置少量比特币，以防范潜在的美国债务危机。

C | 　　事实上，从跨资产的处境来看，对美股而言，至少还拥有一道坚固的防御屏障：强劲的企业盈利。Lombard Odier宏观主管Florian Ielpo认为，美股眼中有着分量重得多的核心数据：20%的企业盈利超预期才是决定2026年走势的关键大数，而不是财政部那区区几十亿美元的回购操作。　　这恰恰解释了为何美股很大程度上对贝森特的表态以及国债市场的压力视而不见。不过，当美国国债收益率攀升至5%附近时，无风险利率的抬升正显著提高股市的盈利门槛，仍可能使国债成为高估值股票的“强劲对手”。　　美银首席哈特内特(Michael Hartnett)目前就将5%的30年期国债收益率视为关键的分水岭，他强调，若收益率无法有效回落至该水平下方，美元以及包括AI巨头和私人信贷在内的高杠杆领域，将面临更加严峻的压力考验。　　与此同时，相比于处境凄惨的债券市场，“货币贬值交易”显然拥有一个更具吸引力的市场叙事。　　“货币贬值交易”重燃　　随着美元走软、黄金与比特币双双大幅反弹，巴克莱将美元称为这场美国当局压制债券收益率行动中的“主要受害者”，因为财政隐忧重新激活了市场对黄金的避险需求。

D | 　　值得注意的是，比特币与黄金的90天相关系数已升至疫情以来的最高正相关水平，这极大地强化了加密货币作为贵金属同类抗通胀/贬值资产的属性——尽管加密货币自身的独立催化因素也为本轮上涨推波助澜。

E | 　　归根结底，美国财政部在债券市场上的干预能力终究有其边界。它可以调整投资者吸收债务的结构与期限，却无法凭空创造货币——那是美联储的专属职权。

F | 然而，美联储主席凯文·沃什始终强调要缩减央行在市场中的干预足迹。这就导致华盛顿在强劲增长、通胀隐忧和庞大投资需求共同推高借贷成本的背景下，陷入了渴望低利率却又无能为力的尴尬境地。

G | 　　加密资产管理公司21shares的宏观主管Stephen Coltman上周五指出，美国财政部8月19日宣布的回购决定是比特币此轮大涨的“核心催化剂”。

H | 这一基准加密货币的强势上扬，还得到了美国总统特朗普当天在白宫会见加密行业领袖的提振，以及市场对旨在规范加密资产的CLARITY法案立法的乐观预期支持。　　Coltman表示，扩大长期国债回购规模给市场带来了“震动”，并重新点燃了“货币贬值交易”。令人担忧的是，旨在压低长期国债利率的市场干预有可能导致金融环境过早宽松，进而推高经济中的通胀风险。他解释称，这将削弱美元的吸引力，因为市场开始担心长期国债投资者在这一情境下无法获得足够的通胀补偿。

I | 　　Coltman指出，随着美元贬值，比特币凭借其固有的稀缺性，对部分交易员构成了极具吸引力的避险选择。FactSet 数据显示，追踪比特币现货价格的知名ETF——iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF上周累计飙升 22.6%，且截至上周五连续三个交易日的单日涨幅均接近6%。　　黄金在上周同样大幅走高，尽管其上涨力度要逊于比特币。

J | 在美国财政部上周发布声明后，Truist Wealth于8月19日将黄金评级上调至“中性”。Truist Wealth首席投资官Keith Lerner表示，受益于随之而来的美元疲软，黄金一举突破了200日均线这一关键技术指标。

K | 　　Lerner指出，从技术分析角度看，黄金站上200日均线是积极信号，预示其后市仍有进一步上行的空间。

L | FactSet 数据显示，黄金的200日均线目前位于每盎司4518美元附近。　　Coltman解释称，虽然美国财政部并非在直接“印钞”，但其效果却异曲同工——因为财政部可能需要通过发行短期国库券来筹集资金，进而回购长期国债。但他强调，政府无法人为增加黄金和比特币的供给，这正是此类资产对试图对冲美元下行和通胀风险的投资者产生核心吸引力的原因所在。

M | 　　当然，对于上周这股狂热的“货币贬值交易”能否长期维持下去，一些业内人士目前仍心存疑虑。Spectra Markets总裁Brent Donnelly最初将贝森特的声明视为买入比特币并做空美元兑瑞郎的绝佳信号，但回购规模相对于庞大的国债总量显得过于微薄，这让他很快冷静下来。　　“我认为美元、黄金和比特币这些极其剧烈的走势，接下去大概率会大幅降温，”他分析道，“贝森特的举措确实印证了结构性主题的存在，但这些主题早已不是什么新鲜事，眼下根本没有任何直接催化剂，能够触发货币贬值交易开启下一轮暴涨。

N | ”（文章来源：财联社）。

Current article:http://www.cousizhegaobaolengkuo.bond/7uit/1eff.html

Published on:10:19:11