Transcript: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo on "Face the Nation," September 3, 2023_我的网站
A | The following is a transcript of an interview with Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo that aired on "Face the Nation" on September 3, 2023.
ROBERT COSTA: We now go to the Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. Good morning, Secretary. Thanks for being here. Let's begin with the economy. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the jobs report for August, and people around their tables this weekend are looking at it. It shows 187,000 jobs were added last month, exceeding expectations. But more people are working more than one job. How worried are you about this?SECRETARY GINA RAIMONDO: Good morning, thanks for having me. This jobs report is exactly what we want to see at this point in the recovery. As you just said, you know, creating more jobs, really exciting is that people are getting off of the sidelines. You know, we're seeing more people come into the labor force and there are jobs for them. As you say, people are working, you know, more than one job and wages are up, it should be said, but this is exactly why President Biden is so focused on creating manufacturing jobs, which are higher paid, getting folks the skills they need to get a higher paying job. There's still a lot of work to do to make sure that every American has the skills they need to get a job, which is family support and sustaining. But- and we're doing that work. But overall, there's a lot to like in this jobs report. And it's exactly- it exceeded our expectations. ROBERT COSTA: In terms of that work that's still to be done, the administration is touting its efforts. It's confident in the economy. But our CBS News polling, Secretary, shows 65% of Americans still view the economy as being in a bad place. Why do you believe your administration, along with President Biden, has struggled to reassure those Americans about these policies and about the economy?SEC. RAIMONDO: So it's- it's an interesting, you know, dichotomy between the- the numbers, and as you say the polling numbers or the- the perception numbers, I think the reality is that inflation still exists. And it is, you know, something that people see on a daily basis when they go to the grocery store, or pay their rent, or pay their mortgage. And we have to know that, you know, that's still a challenge for folks. That being said, if you look at where we are today, compared to when the President took office, it's an unbelievable story of progress. And I will tell you, even I, you know, his- the President's Commerce Secretary, if you had told me when we started based on where the economy was, how high the unemployment rate was, how, you know, disrupted supply chains were, that we'd be sitting here now with this jobs picture, I might not have believed it. I mean, it's just a stunning amount of progress. The economy- we're among the strongest economies in the world. We all went through COVID, right, Europe did, China did, Asia did yet we have emerged, the fastest and the strongest. So I don't want to minimize what Americans are feeling, and that's why we get up and go to work every day. But this economy by any measure is doing incredibly well and much better than anyone could have predicted I think three years ago when we started.
ROBERT COSTA: After looking back, let's also look ahead, the White House is working with Congress to hammer out an agreement on a short term funding measure to avoid an October 1 partial federal government shutdown. When you talk to business leaders right now, are they worried about this deadline and what a shutdown could mean for the US economy?SEC. RAIMONDO: Yes, they are worried- they're very worried. They are, I think, in some cases, frustrated that this is how government operates. You know, what businesses need to be successful is- is predictability, you know, predictability, some semblance of, you know, regular order. And so these sorts of disruptions that are mainly driven by politics. So it's a challenge for the economy and have the potential to set us back. So I do hope that there will be a speedy resolution.ROBERT COSTA: Secretary, you are the first commerce secretary in five years to be on the ground in China in recent days. What progress, if any, do you think you made on the ground there?SEC. RAIMONDO: I think we made a great deal of progress. In terms of concrete deliverables, I was able to open three specific lines of communication with the Chinese, which is a huge step forward. We haven't really had any contact in more than five years. So we agreed to share information about export controls, we agreed to open a dialogue on commercial issues, which is so important, because China has not treated US business fairly. And so it's- we got to put those issues on the table. And we agree to have exchange around trade secrets, another area where businesses need to- deserve to know that their trade secrets will be protected in China. But I think more than any of that we just are starting to resume a direct line of contact and communication, which we need to do if we're going to manage what is a very complex and potentially volatile relationship with China.
ROBERT COSTA: So people may be heartened to hear at least some that the US and the Chinese, they're talking, there's open lines of communication right now. But what's next, beyond having this dialogue? What specifically can you say is going to happen next?SEC. RAIMONDO: So my message to the Chinese officials with whom I met is that action speaks louder than words. So they gave verbal assurances that they will treat US businesses fairly, that they will not engage in non-market practices which hurt American workers. And my message was, well, let's see it. You know, actions speak louder than words. So time will tell whether they are going to really be as they say they want to be, you know, more market oriented and open and reform minded when it comes to their economy, their regulatory regime. They need to be less arbitrary in the way they administer regulations to actually give American businesses a fair shot to compete.ROBERT COSTA: You said on the trip that quote, increasingly, I hear from American business that China is uninvestable, because it becomes too risky. So what exactly did you get in terms of those assurances from the Chinese, that would really give confidence to American business leaders?SEC. RAIMONDO: They said that they would talk to American businesses and begin to address these issues. Like, for example, one of the complaints I hear frequently from US business, by the way, business who are used to doing business in- in difficult parts of the world. They say that, you know, China's regulations are not at all transparent. You know, they'll raid a business in March and not explain what went on for many months. They will arrest folks but not provide due process or tell you what happened. And so when I expressed these concerns, I was heard, I wasn't given any promises. But one thing that I think we can take a bit of heart in is it's in China's interest. It's in their economic interest to have foreign direct investment and to make sure, you know, they had a very good economy when they were market oriented and reform minded. And so we have to hope that self interest will affect their future decisions.ROBERT COSTA: So they might have that motivation, but you saw them face to face, you had meetings with them. That's the value of having these sorts of trips. Do you trust the Chinese at this point after all of your conversations, after digesting what happened on your trip, do you trust them?SEC. RAIMONDO: Trust is probably not the word I would use. We need to see action. And until we see action, there can be no trust.ROBERT COSTA: And they hacked into your own email account so that might have hurt the ability to have a trustworthy relationship.
SEC. RAIMONDO: Exactly. And I said that, you know, hacking my account erodes trust, undermining American workers, by over subsidizing certain industries erodes trust, treating American businesses unfairly on the ground erodes trust. So but, you know, look, I- we can't be naive and oversimplify this relationship, this very challenging relationship. But we have to be practical, right? We have to protect ourselves first and foremost, national security, the United States. Beyond that we have to be practical and look for places where we can have a strong commercial relationship because we need stability in this relationship. That's good for America. And- and I think it's what the world is expecting of us and of China.ROBERT COSTA: You're looking for stability, Secretary. But the big question is, is China's economy stable? There have been indicators over the last several months that showed China's economy's in a slowdown. When you were over there, did you get insights, if any, about whether the Chinese economy is slowing down? And how concerning would that be for the United States?SEC. RAIMONDO: I think there's no question that it is slowing down. And certainly they're having real, real significant challenges in the real estate sector, which they readily acknowledged when I was there. But again, to my mind, the facts are quite clear in this regard. When China was more market oriented, open, you know, a little bit more transparent, their economy did very well. And more recently, as they have closed down and become more arbitrary in the way they administer regulations, the economy is quite challenged. So time will tell. The decision- the ball's in their court- the decisions are theirs. We want a large and stable economic relationship with them, but they have to play by the rules. And we are always going to act in our own American self-interest.ROBERT COSTA: Speaking of playing by the rules, there's such a standoff right now between the Chinese and tech companies. Semiconductors are crucial for our economy, yet China's threatening to curb the mineral supply to the US and the West. And many US businesses tell CBS they're operating in China, but seeing this hostile environment with raids, and fines. So how is your administration going to solve this back and forth between the Chinese and the tech industry?SEC. RAIMONDO: This is exactly why I went to China. It's exactly why I went, showed up, had meetings. I met with my counterpart for more than four hours. I met with the premier for more than one hour. They were open, candid, honest discussions. How are we going to resolve these issues? Because I'll tell you, prior to going to China, I personally spoke with more than 100 US business leaders and labor leaders. And what they tell me is that even the ones that have been doing business in China for decades, you know, these are sophisticated people used to dealing with the traditional concerns of, you know, IP- IP theft or non-market practices. They say, it's much harder now. Right? Like China is making it more difficult because of the reasons you say the raids, the counter espionage law. They are going to make a business decision to do business in other countries unless that improves. And so I was very clear with China that we need to- patience is wearing thin among American business. They need and deserve a predictable environment and a level playing field. And hopefully China will heed that message so we can have a stable growing commercial relationship.ROBERT COSTA: And there are many voices as you know in the ears of American business leaders. A Wall Street Journal report, earlier this year, for example, said that the FBI director, Christopher Wray, wants businesses to help fight China and cyber threats. He reportedly said that only through cooperation with the FBI can that agency marshal an effective response. Do you agree with Director Wray?SEC. RAIMONDO: I agree that business has an important role to play partnering with us to ensure America's national security across a range of different areas, including technology. And, you know, that's why we are in such close contact with business, frankly, often the information they have on the ground is some of the best that we can- we can get.
ROBERT COSTA: But is it good for businesses to work with the FBI specifically?SEC. RAIMONDO: Every business has to make their own decision. But I definitely think there's value- there's mutual value for business, and certainly for the government to have communication and coordination.ROBERT COSTA: And I'm often out on the campaign trail, Secretary. And I know you stay out of politics. But one thing I'm hearing from so many Republicans across the country, especially governors, they want to block Chinese companies from making investments and buying farmland in the United States. Does the Biden administration and do you support Chinese companies making investments and buying farmland in the United States?SEC. RAIMONDO: We have to be very, very careful, we have to screen every investment and make a decision as to whether it hurts our national security or not. Not every investment from China into America is- harms our national security, but many do. And so it's a case by case basis, looking into the facts and being as tough as we need to be, but also being, you know, realistic and not hyperbolic. Just being, like I say, practical. It's time to be practical, pragmatic and serious about managing every aspect of this relationship.ROBERT COSTA: Secretary Raimondo, we appreciate you taking the time on a Sunday. Thank you.SEC. RAIMONDO: Thank you. Have a great Labor Day weekend. 。 作为一名从业十余年的地产观察者，我注意到今年秋天的媒体语境中，“金九银十”这个词几乎失去了往日的声量。市场的喧嚣被一种近乎凝滞的静默取代，这种静默，比任何数据都更能反映当前楼市的真实温度。
回顾去年国庆，受“9·24”新政提振，全国多地楼市曾短暂回暖。广州、深圳等地甚至还出现了抢房的盛况，媒体铺天盖地的“金九银十”报道，确实也成色十足，当时市场普遍认为，房地产已触底，2025年上半年将迎来反弹。
然而，刚刚过去的国庆中秋双节，却几乎迎来近十年最差的楼市。笔者到南昌一些新推楼盘走访，开发商也推出了特价房源、赠送车位、家装补贴以及“保价”等一系列营销活动，但与去年国庆的盛况相比，今年就冷清多了，没有了热闹的人流，曾经彻夜不息的灯光暗了下来，促销横幅在秋风中褪色，这一切与去年的盛况形成鲜明对比。
一位销售坦言，9月份以来，在各种促销攻势之下，新房销售确实稍有好转，主要是以价换量推动一些刚需用户下定决心，但是整个市场并未发生根本性改变，“数据一如既往难看，我们售楼中心好多人都兼职卖二手房了。”这话语背后，是整个行业正在经历的深刻转型。
与去年此时密集的政策刺激不同，今年从中央政治局会议到地方政策出台，基调都转向“稳预期、防风险”。政策重心从刺激交易转向托底市场，这种转变正在重塑全社会对房地产的认知。
首先，购房者心态已发生根本性转变。
B | 过去三十年房地产之所以狂飙突进，一方面是其居住的属性需求，另一方面则是投资需求，或者是炒房的需求，而投资向来是买涨不买跌，买的是一个预期。事实也证明，在那个“买涨不买跌”的年代，上涨预期催生了楼市黄金二十年。
C |
而今，在住房总量基本饱和、空置率居高不下的背景下，房子的投资属性正在剥离，回归居住本质。这种转变使得购房逻辑彻底反转——现在是“买跌不买涨”，甚至“只看不买”。这也就能解释为何现在各种大促，反而让民众有了未来更便宜的想法。
D |
国家力推四代住宅提升品质的同时，存量房激增成为去化的最大挑战。
E | 国盛证券研究表明，我国存量住房已基本满足需求，未来十年住房需求可能再降三成。住建部2025年3月公布的数据显示，全国城镇住房空置率达16.2%，涉及3.9亿套城镇住房。
商业地产同样不容乐观。
F | 仲量联行数据显示，今年二季度全国主要城市甲级办公楼新增供应170.5万平方米，其中一线城市占115.8万平方米。集中供应推高上海空置率至24.6%，广州至23.8%，深圳更是达到26.5%。
G |
其次，高空置率叠加经济增速放缓，强化了市场对房价下行的预期。看国家统计局发布的全国70个大中型城市房价，8月份一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降1.0%，其中，北京、上海、广州和深圳分别下降1.2%、1.0%、0.9%和0.8%；二线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.6%，降幅扩大0.1个百分点；三线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.5%。
H | 9月份70个城市环比同比全部下跌，无一例外。
一线城市跌幅为1.0%左右（北京、上海、广州、深圳降0.9%、1.0%、0.8%、1.0%），二、三线城市跌幅为0.7%和0.6%左右。同比已经有不少城市跌幅达10%，意味着去年200万购入的房产，如今蒸发20万价值——这几乎是普通工薪阶层两年的收入。这种持续阴跌进一步固化了购房者的观望心态。
当前购房门槛确实显著降低：首付比例最低降至15%，首套房贷利率探至3.05%，公积金贷款利率更低至2.6%，房价较2021年高点平均回落超30%。
然而，这些“利好”并未激发购买热情，反而让更多人期待“更低的底”。谈论房价时，人们语气中的迟疑取代了从前的笃定，谨慎算计压过了冲动消费。
即使有真实需求的购房者也会变得格外谨慎，担心自己今天买入明天就贬值，成为接盘侠。
笔者去年8月曾写《熊市买房记》记录当时的买房遭遇和心态，后来买房泡汤核心也是害怕做接盘侠。有开发商悄悄将“限时折扣”改成了“保价承诺”，试图对抗那看不见却无处不在的贬值预期，但于大势而言，仍显得有点螳臂当车。
再者，交付风险成为悬在购房者头上的达摩克利斯之剑。开发商债务危机频发，连昔日稳健的万科也面临考验。根据万科财报，截至2025年二季度末，万科流动负债有6411亿元，其中一年内到期的短期债务合计有1578.59亿元，但其账上货币资金有740亿元，规模持续下降，无法覆盖短债，公司存在一定短期偿债压力。当民营房企普遍陷入信用危机，“能否交房”远比“价格多优”更令人关切。在风险面前，低价已失去吸引力。
8月国务院会议重申要“采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势”，释放积极信号。
I | 京沪深三大一线城市也开始逐步松绑周边区域的限购，先是8月初北京大幅放宽五环外的限购措施，并在全市范围内优化公积金政策；下旬上海放宽外环外限购，房贷利率也不再区分首套和二套，在进一步利好需求的同时，风向标意义也被看重。9月深圳也跟进，成都、长沙等其他二、三线城市也都打出各种促销牌，促进各地项目加快销售和行情向好。
现实证明，在周期面前，我们能做的终究有限。
回顾房地产下行的这三年，我们见证了政策的频繁调整、开发商的奋力自救，也目睹了中国人对“居者有其屋”的传统执着与投资狂热如何相互交织。当市场从非理性繁荣回归冷静，或许正是价值规律重新主导的时刻。
《史记》有言：“察势者明，趋势者智。”当下的中国房地产，正从口号驱动的狂欢转向周期审视的理性。
人们开始学会像秋收后盘点仓廪的农人，懂得留种比挥霍更需要智慧与定力。市场的体温或许暂时偏低，但正如日本楼市在沉寂二十年后重现生机，欧美经历百年起伏仍保持活跃交易，中国房地产的调整并非终点，而是一场合乎时序的回归。
我们需要的是耐心，静候这个巨量市场在新的平衡点上重新找到它的节奏。
本文来自微信公众号：秦朔朋友圈 （ID：qspyq2015），作者：梁云风。
J |
Current article:http://www.cousizhegaobaolengkuo.bond/dcc/a59e.html
